Roughing the Punter

Go Back   Roughing the Punter > Main Forums > General Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 09-13-2016, 02:56 PM
BennyProfane's Avatar
BennyProfane BennyProfane is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 883
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kane View Post
Okay, there isn't a right or wrong answer, but to me a lot of it depends on the situation. The strength of the Raiders is their offense, the weakness of the Saints is their defense. Like I said, I'll take my chances that my good offense can make a play against their bad defense. One play to win the game, and I have my best unit going against their worse unit. Not to mention the message it sends to your team, fuck OT, we're winning this game right now. I have to think the players loved the decision, whether it worked or not, I love the aggressiveness. Off topic, but I love it when a coach goes for 4th and one from the other teams 40, most of the time they punt, but I love the aggressive coach who isn't afraid to gamble, I think teams should go for it on 4th down way more often than they do. In case you hadn't noticed, I'm a fan of being aggressive, play to win, I wish more coaches coached that way.
If you've never been to footballoutsiders.com, it's definitely worth checking out. Lots of content and statistical analyses about the situations you're describing.
__________________
translatingtbc.blogspot.com
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 09-13-2016, 03:14 PM
MadLib's Avatar
MadLib MadLib is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,236
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kane View Post
Okay, there isn't a right or wrong answer, but to me a lot of it depends on the situation. The strength of the Raiders is their offense, the weakness of the Saints is their defense. Like I said, I'll take my chances that my good offense can make a play against their bad defense. One play to win the game, and I have my best unit going against their worse unit. Not to mention the message it sends to your team, fuck OT, we're winning this game right now. I have to think the players loved the decision, whether it worked or not, I love the aggressiveness. Off topic, but I love it when a coach goes for 4th and one from the other teams 40, most of the time they punt, but I love the aggressive coach who isn't afraid to gamble, I think teams should go for it on 4th down way more often than they do. In case you hadn't noticed, I'm a fan of being aggressive, play to win, I wish more coaches coached that way.
Yes but like Chap said, I don't see anybody disagreeing with your conclusion just your analysis which is basically the same shit you hear on sports radio or at the bar. AP's typically defer to things like math, which provably show beyond all doubt that going on 4th and 1 from the 40 (either of them!) is better than punting, and it has nothing to do with "being afraid to gamble" it's just common sense.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 09-13-2016, 06:47 PM
David M's Avatar
David M David M is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,271
Default

Going for 2 is the obvious move in that spot, although many coaches would blow it. I don't think it matters home/road/dog/or/fav IMO.

There were 47 seconds left in the game. The Raiders were still going to have to guard against the Saints getting into FG range and kicking a winning FG to win.

If the score were tied 34-34 the Saints win with a FG in the last 47 seconds or it goes to OT where Raiders would be a small dog.

If the Raiders were up 35-34 the Saints also win with a FG, but if they don't get in range or miss FG Raiders win.

If Raiders miss, they know they can do onside kick and upon recovery get into FG range and win. Sure it's a low percentage play, but it has some chance of success and if they miss 2-pt conv it's a obvious call to make.

They were freerolling information. They gain a win instead of a push in regulation, and upon failure they still have outs.

Edit: having thought about it another few minutes, I think a decent favorite, say a team that was at least -6 or higher for the game, probably should kick the XP because they can grind out the win with their dominance. I'd say for a 5 point favorite or lower or any dog it would be best to go for 2. A 6 point favorite or higher should tie it up.

Last edited by David M; 09-14-2016 at 10:50 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 09-13-2016, 07:56 PM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,514
Default

OK so the brightest minds on here cannot agree on many things, but we are dead set on the raiders 2 pt attempt is the stronger of the two options from a win percentage age standpoint.

2 pter it is!
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 09-14-2016, 07:38 AM
2w2p2s's Avatar
2w2p2s 2w2p2s is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,454
Default

Haven't heard it mentioned yet but I thought the genius of immediately getting into formation for a 2pt attempt was forcing NO to burn their last timeout.
__________________
"people can be replaced u see. money cannot, once its gone, its gone forever"- TBC
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 09-14-2016, 09:13 AM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,514
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2w2p2s View Post
Haven't heard it mentioned yet but I thought the genius of immediately getting into formation for a 2pt attempt was forcing NO to burn their last timeout.
I couldn't believe new Orleans did this. Carolina did this on Thursday too, avoiding a 5 yard delay penalty. Happens all the time, misuse of timeouts are great for dog covers. Oh well. Yeah that timeout would have been handy on the saints fg attempt drive. Maybe if the raiders tied it with pat then saints probably would have a better fg try. Genius.
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 09-14-2016, 06:28 PM
Mos Eyesly Mos Eyesly is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 585
Default

That will help dogs cover their 50 point whatever percentage slightly, very slightly better than favorites cover, so no real big deal.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 09-14-2016, 07:22 PM
donovan donovan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 553
Default

So how did Brian Burke get this so wrong?
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 09-14-2016, 10:17 PM
SetofKs's Avatar
SetofKs SetofKs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 983
Default

Steve Fezzik from pregame.com says that the math hates it

Steve Fezzik ‏@FezzikSports Sep 11
HORRENDOUS decision to go for 2 for Oak.....fine to do so with :04 left, not :47..... you don't win if you get the 2, so the math HATES it
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 09-15-2016, 12:18 PM
BennyProfane's Avatar
BennyProfane BennyProfane is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 883
Default

Love the Bills tonight. -1 (-106) at pinny for all you can eat.
__________________
translatingtbc.blogspot.com
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -8. The time now is 06:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.