Roughing the Punter

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  #11  
Old 09-12-2016, 06:23 PM
Mos Eyesly Mos Eyesly is offline
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Pitt.-Was. game 1st half Over 25 and a hook. Hope these bookies take teasers forever, I know some are raising the juice, but so many two way winners in N.F.L., horseshoes and hand grenades.
Not 2Day for that over, 0-1. I live in Ct., wish I lived in Nevada, always love it out there, so cool and different for me being in the desert, and I love the wide open freedom out there. Some day Cutter! Even Benny is sending best wishes, maybe we could all tag along on a Cutter extravaganza, you are just living the fucking dream!
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  #12  
Old 09-12-2016, 06:59 PM
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Rule change, touchbacks start at 25 yard line instead of 20.

No real effect on overall scoring or not?

My opinion is that in low totalled games could be same or lower, but in high totalled games just less field to cover.

I am not even a very good gambler, I do enough good things though to get by. Just have some 49ers teasers. Good thing I didn't play the skins. I certainly wouldn't have took Steelers. My favorite things are not everybody else's. I enjoy talking to people when I am not gambling. Yeah I got pulled over but lucky for me I had had a drink in over 2 hours.

Benny likes the 49ers. I saw +3 -120 but figured I would call it a small losing weekend and just stand with my teasers.

Nevada is so fun, I really couldnt live anywhere else without feeling a little bored.
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  #13  
Old 09-13-2016, 12:07 AM
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Congrats on those 49ers.

Still beffuddled as to that atrocious ESPN in game model analysis.

There is on major thing to consider... If saints are down 1 instead of tied, they go balls to the wall to get that fg. Otherwise they might take a couple safe passes and get to overtime without risking something bad. But down by 1 they are forced to go all out.

So even if we made the assumption that the pat is 100%. And there is no chance of a saints comeback in regulation.. As long as overtime is 50%, the 2 pt conversion rate only has to buy 50+ %. So the big error here is assuming that this conversion rate is less than 50%. I think it's damn close to 50% one way or the other. So the risk here is not the 2 pt conversion, but rather how often does he miss the pat.

In hindsight the only difference between being up by 1 or tied after the conversion or pat is what are the new probabilities with these conditions. One could argue that saints winning in regulation is nearly the same probability given either a tie game or raiders up by 1.

Food for thought. Don't believe every mathematical model you see. Some are just plain horrible. Which is probably why some folks are experts at beating in game wagering. The model has flaws.
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Last edited by Cutter; 09-13-2016 at 12:11 AM.
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  #14  
Old 09-13-2016, 01:29 PM
kane kane is offline
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Del Rio made a good decision to go for the win, and I would have said the same thing had it not worked. The fact that the Saints are so bad defensively made it an easier call. If you kick the extra point, you're probably going to OT, if you lose the coin toss, there's a very good chance Brees marches downfield, sticks it in the end zone, and you lose the game without ever touching the ball. I would rather take my chances on getting the 2 with a good offense against a bad defense, than going into OT, especially on the road
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  #15  
Old 09-13-2016, 01:31 PM
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Del Rio made a good decision to go for the win, and I would have said the same thing had it not worked. The fact that the Saints are so bad defensively made it an easier call. If you kick the extra point, you're probably going to OT, if you lose the coin toss, there's a very good chance Brees marches downfield, sticks it in the end zone, and you lose the game without ever touching the ball. I would rather take my chances on getting the 2 with a good offense against a bad defense, than going into OT, especially on the road
This sounds like what I've been hearing on sports talk radio and I don't mean that as a compliment :-)

Obvious guy says if the OAK offence vs NO defence is such a great matchup for the 2 pointer, then it's probably also a great matchup for OT. The Raiders should win the coin toss roughly 50% of the time!
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Old 09-13-2016, 01:37 PM
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This sounds like what I've been hearing on sports talk radio and I don't mean that as a compliment :-)

Obvious guy says if the OAK offence vs NO defence is such a great matchup for the 2 pointer, then it's probably also a great matchup for OT. The Raiders should win the coin toss roughly 50% of the time!
Let's say they go to OT, and Oakland wins the toss, they better score a TD, or else they're giving Brees a chance to beat them. I'll take my chances needing to pick up a couple of yards, as opposed to needing 70 if I win the toss. If I play for OT, and NO gets the ball first and wins the game, I'm second guessing myself all week. I think more coaches should be aggressive in that spot and go for the win
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  #17  
Old 09-13-2016, 01:41 PM
kane kane is offline
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Also, for as bad as the Saint's D is, it's not easy to go the length of the field and score a TD. The Raiders might put together a nice drive, but stall at the 20, they kick a FG, then give the ball back to Brees to either tie or win the game, no thanks
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  #18  
Old 09-13-2016, 02:12 PM
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Let's say they go to OT, and Oakland wins the toss, they better score a TD, or else they're giving Brees a chance to beat them. I'll take my chances needing to pick up a couple of yards, as opposed to needing 70 if I win the toss. If I play for OT, and NO gets the ball first and wins the game, I'm second guessing myself all week. I think more coaches should be aggressive in that spot and go for the win
Literally every argument you make can be reversed and argued in favour of OAK kicking the PAT.

FWIW, I too think they were correct in going for 2. I just think your ****ysis and reasoning is awful.
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  #19  
Old 09-13-2016, 02:13 PM
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Also, for as bad as the Saint's D is, it's not easy to go the length of the field and score a TD. The Raiders might put together a nice drive, but stall at the 20, they kick a FG, then give the ball back to Brees to either tie or win the game, no thanks
Again the reverse of this argument suggests that they should play for OT lol.
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  #20  
Old 09-13-2016, 02:50 PM
kane kane is offline
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Literally every argument you make can be reversed and argued in favour of OAK kicking the PAT.

FWIW, I too think they were correct in going for 2. I just think your ****ysis and reasoning is awful.
Okay, there isn't a right or wrong answer, but to me a lot of it depends on the situation. The strength of the Raiders is their offense, the weakness of the Saints is their defense. Like I said, I'll take my chances that my good offense can make a play against their bad defense. One play to win the game, and I have my best unit going against their worse unit. Not to mention the message it sends to your team, fuck OT, we're winning this game right now. I have to think the players loved the decision, whether it worked or not, I love the aggressiveness. Off topic, but I love it when a coach goes for 4th and one from the other teams 40, most of the time they punt, but I love the aggressive coach who isn't afraid to gamble, I think teams should go for it on 4th down way more often than they do. In case you hadn't noticed, I'm a fan of being aggressive, play to win, I wish more coaches coached that way.
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