Roughing the Punter

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  #21  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:14 AM
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PerpetualCzech PerpetualCzech is offline
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f5 f5 f5 f5 ...
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  #22  
Old 11-28-2012, 07:40 AM
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Default Update

Thru NFL Week 12:

Results:

Category W/L: One-wgt: 37-37-3, Two-wgt: 60-56-2,
Three-wgt: 24-22-0, Four-wgt: 4-6-1, Five or more-wgt: 1-4-0.

Overall weighted W/L: 251-264-11, 48.74%, -41.49u

Subsets:
Overall NFL reg. season straight sides/totals unweighted W/L: 69-77-5, 47.3%, -26.60u
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 2-0-1-0, +6.11u (W-L-Win with 1 push-Push)
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 9-8-0, +3.60u
Overall NFL reg. season record weighted : 218-266, 45.0%, (96-97-8 unweighted), -39.39u
Overall CFL unweighted W/L: 0-1-0, 0.0%, -2.20u
Overall CFB unweighted W/L: 0-1-0, 0.0%, -3.30u

Overall NFLX record: 31-27-0 unweighted, +3.30u
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  #23  
Old 11-28-2012, 08:10 AM
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Awesome.
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  #24  
Old 12-18-2012, 08:06 PM
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Default Update

Thru NFL Week 15:

Results:

Category W/L: One-wgt: 40-44-3, Two-wgt: 68-67-2,
Three-wgt: 27-29-0, Four-wgt: 6-6-1, Five or more-wgt: 1-4-0.

Overall weighted W/L: 287-314-11, 47.75%, -61.04u


Subsets:
Overall NFL reg. season straight sides/totals unweighted W/L: 79-95-5, 45.4%, -63.10u
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 2-0-1-0, +6.11u (W-L-Win with 1 push-Push)
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 9-9-0, +1.20u
Overall NFL reg. season record weighted : 261-320, 44.9%, (112-121-8 unweighted), -56.74u
Overall CFL unweighted W/L: 0-1-0, 0.0%, -2.20u
Overall CFB unweighted W/L: 0-2-0, 0.0%, -5.50u

Overall NFLX record: 31-27-0 unweighted, +3.30u
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  #25  
Old 12-18-2012, 08:08 PM
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ComptrBob ComptrBob is offline
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Default RSW selections - estimated EV

Wins____: Colts OV, UNLV UN, Wash Huskies UN, Saints UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Raiders UN, Seahawks OV, Cards UN
Losses___: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN, Redskins UN, Jaguars OV, Bills OV
Expected wins__: Packers UN, Browns OV
Expected losses_: 49ers UN, Bengals UN, Dolphins UN

Summary EV: NFL: +3.97u, CFB: -6.35u

Fezzik NFL season bets
Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV

9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 8-6 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20
9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 10-4 30.0% 70.0% 3.30 0.90
8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 6-8 23.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.23
8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 9-5 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.00
8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 9-5 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00
8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 3.90 3.00
8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 32-31 7.0% 4.0% 1.15 -0.95
7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 5-9 35.0% 65.0% 1.15 0.35
7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 5-9 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00
7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 4.40 4.00
7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-8 80.0% 20.0% 2.40 1.60
7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 10-4 70.0% 30.0% 1.20 0.70
7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 8-6 33.0% 38.0% 3.75 -0.10
7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 2-12 0.0% 0.0% 2.50 -2.50
7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 10-3-1 0.0% 10.0% 5.50 -4.95
7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 8-6 0.0% 27.0% 5.00 -3.65
7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 9-5 30.0% 40.0% 3.45 -0.14
7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.40 2.00
7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 6-8 100.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.00
7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.20 2.00
7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 5-9 0.0% 0.0% 4.20 -4.20
5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-8 0.0% 20.0% 1.20 -0.96
5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 6-7-1 65.0% 35.0% 2.00 1.30
TOTAL 3.97
1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -69.67
Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70
XIRR 14.1%

Fezzik CFB season bets
8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20
8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-10 0.0% 15.0% 3.70 -3.15
8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 5.40 3.00
8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00
7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-11 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00
TOTAL -6.35
12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -8.96
Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30
XIRR -81.6% Tot Bet 81.00
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  #26  
Old 12-20-2012, 07:20 AM
Samo Samo is offline
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Great work Bob!

Thanks for keeping records.
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Thanks.
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  #27  
Old 12-27-2012, 10:10 AM
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Default Update - main record

Thru NFL Week 16:

Results:

Category W/L: One-wgt: 41-45-3, Two-wgt: 71-71-2,
Three-wgt: 28-32-0, Four-wgt: 7-6-1, Five or more-wgt: 1-4-0.

Overall weighted W/L: 301-332-12, 47.55%, -67.29u
Subsets:
Overall NFL reg. season straight sides/totals unweighted W/L: 81-101-5, 44.4%, -71.55u
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 2-0-1-0, +6.11u (W-L-Win with 1 push-Push)
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 9-9-0, +1.20u
Overall NFL reg. season record weighted : 276-336, 45.1%, (117-128-9 unweighted), -62.79u
Overall CFL unweighted W/L: 0-1-0, 0.0%, -2.20u
Overall CFB unweighted W/L: 1-6-0, 14.3%, -13.40u

Overall NFLX record: 31-27-0 unweighted, +3.30u
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  #28  
Old 12-27-2012, 10:13 AM
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Default Update - divisional and playoff futures

In the past month, I have just started to track these 4 plays:

Wins__: Falcons Div
Losses_: Bears Div

Summary: Est EV: +0.34u

Fezzik NFL Div, Playoff Future bets
Date-Bet Team__________ ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV
10/17 Pats to win AFC_____ 250 2 11-4 36.0% 0.0% 2.00 0.52
10/14 49ers to win NFC____ 225 2 10-4-1 28.0% 0.0% 2.00 -0.18
9/13 Falcons win NFC South_ -125 2 12-2 100.0% 0.0% 2.50 2.00
9/13 Bears win NFC North___ 300 2 9-6 0.0% 0.0% 2.00 -2.00
TOTAL 0.34
1/24/2013 Pay date 8 Payout -8.84
Amt bet Amt Bet 8.50
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  #29  
Old 02-05-2013, 08:53 AM
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Default Final accounting

Category W/L: Half-Wgt: 1-0, One-wgt: 55-49-4, Two-wgt: 80-82-2,
Three-wgt: 36-38-1, Four-wgt: 9-11-1, Five or more-wgt: 4-4-0.

Overall weighted W/L: 380.5-396-15, 49.00%, -55.89u

Subsets:
Overall NFL reg. season straight sides/totals unweighted W/L: 83-108-4, 43.5%, -88.35u
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 2-0-1-0, +6.11u (W-L-Win with 1 push-Push)
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 10-9-0, +4.20u
Overall NFL reg. season record weighted : 308-334, 48.0%, (148-147-11 unweighted), -59.34u

Added the following RSW and Futures to the tally (RSW win/loss record not included) :
RSW: NFL: +4.05u, CFB: -6.90u, FUTURES: NFL: +2.50u, NET: -0.35u

Overall CFL unweighted W/L: 0-1-0, 0.0%, -2.20u
Overall CFB unweighted W/L: 12-14-0, 46.2%, 13.60u
Overall NFLX record: 31-27-0 unweighted, +3.30u

Last edited by ComptrBob; 08-11-2013 at 08:35 AM. Reason: Corrected NFL reg. season records, no overall change
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  #30  
Old 02-05-2013, 09:35 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Good thing he was serious about the NFL this year!
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