Roughing the Punter

Go Back   Roughing the Punter > Main Forums > General Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-11-2016, 06:04 AM
BennyProfane's Avatar
BennyProfane BennyProfane is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 860
Default 2016 Football Discussion

I just want to say that I love this forum and everyone who posts here.
The baseball discussion thread turned out to be an unmitigated success. So let's try it again!
Many of the good lines have moved. But I like the Titans and the Jets.
Best wishes, even to you Ronald!
__________________
translatingtbc.blogspot.com
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-11-2016, 04:39 PM
donovan donovan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 553
Default Brian Burke: Raiders

I usually like Brian Burke's stuff, but how did he come up with the Raiders having a 51% chance of winning if they went for a PAT?

Yes, it worked, but was going for 2 the right call for Raiders?

Jack Del Rio's call turned out just right for the Raiders in Week 1. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
2:39 PM PT
Sharon Katz & Brian Burke
Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
Email
print
comment
With 47 seconds remaining and trailing by seven against the Saints, Derek Carr hit Seth Roberts for a 10-yard touchdown to pull the Oakland Raiders within one.

So, kick the extra point and go to overtime, right?

Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio had a different plan. He opted to attempt a two-point conversion with the potential to win the game in regulation.

Did Del Rio make the correct decision?

Based on ESPNís win probability model, the Raiders would have had a 51 percent chance to win if they kicked the extra point and a 44 percent chance to win if they attempted the two-point conversion.

That assumes that teams make extra points 95 percent of the time and convert the two points at a rate of 48 percent, which is based on NFL averages over recent years. The Raiders would have had to convert their conversions at a rate of 56 percent for it be a break-even proposition.

So Del Rio took a risk -- one that the numbers do not necessarily support -- but it ended well for the Raiders. Each two-point attempt is different, so maybe he thought the Raiders could score on the Saintsí porous defense or that his team was particularly efficient on two-point tries. The Raiders had made one earlier in the quarter, giving them as many as they had all of last season.

Nonetheless, Oakland converted the two-point attempt on a fade in the back of the end zone to Michael Crabtree. After converting, the Raiders had a 91 percent chance to win and were able to hold off Drew Breesí drive that resulted in a missed 61-yard field goal attempt.

The Raiders are the first team to score a go-ahead two-point conversion in the final minute of the fourth quarter since the Broncos did it against the Chargers in Week 2 of the 2008 season.

The play was also not the first time the Saints have lost when a team decided to go for two points in the last minute of regulation. In Week 15 of 2002, the Vikings scored to pull within one on a Daunte Culpepper-to-Randy Moss touchdown and then converted the two for the win.

The Raiders took a risk, but it paid off.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-11-2016, 07:16 PM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,503
Default

(.425) is raider win probability if they kick it. Certainly not more than 50%. They could miss the pat, and saints more likely to get a fg than give one up with 45 sec remaining.


Saints were slightly favored but let's call ot nearly a 50/50 proposition. If you want to skew for extra homefield late that makes raiders case to go for it even stronger.

I think they make the conversion over 50%. Based on prevailing total and they way the offenses were better than the defenses.

So Jack clearly made the right call. Not even close to being the wrong call.

Don't believe the bullshit. And don't believe that OK St got hosed either. Clearly what they did was a penalty. Penalties by definition has a consequence.
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-11-2016, 07:19 PM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,503
Default

I had saints ml and -.5. I was hoping he would reconsider after the timeout.
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-11-2016, 09:10 PM
Mos Eyesly Mos Eyesly is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 585
Default

Pitt.-Was. game 1st half Over 25 and a hook. Hope these bookies take teasers forever, I know some are raising the juice, but so many two way winners in N.F.L., horseshoes and hand grenades.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-11-2016, 09:40 PM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,503
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mos Eyesly View Post
Pitt.-Was. game 1st half Over 25 and a hook. Hope these bookies take teasers forever, I know some are raising the juice, but so many two way winners in N.F.L., horseshoes and hand grenades.
I will lose teasers this week. :( even if the 49ers cover.

But I still bought a round for everybody anyway. Dancing and fucking girls arrive within the hour.

Where do you live? I can't wait for legal weed to hit Nevada this winter. And the choice will be Trump or Johnson. So we dodged a bullet. Either one is fine with me.

Great topics of conversation. Did monkeys ever eat meat. And some really cool answers. Turns out the probably couldn't at first, but as evolution continued, they could. And how come we all have different DNA if we came from Adams rib?

Me, just smiling between escapades knowing that Hillary will not be running in a few weeks. Then I thought the DNC might have a replacement plan. Which am still releived sinceno replacement can be as bad as her. Yup that's right.
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.

Last edited by Cutter; 09-11-2016 at 10:56 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-12-2016, 10:19 AM
PokerKat's Avatar
PokerKat PokerKat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 1,524
Default

Pretty sure the first ape to eat meat was us and to do so in any volume required us to learn how to cook it
__________________
Being just contaminates the void
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-12-2016, 10:38 AM
BennyProfane's Avatar
BennyProfane BennyProfane is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 860
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cutter View Post
I
Me, just smiling between escapades knowing that Hillary will not be running in a few weeks. Then I thought the DNC might have a replacement plan. Which am still releived sinceno replacement can be as bad as her. Yup that's right.
I plan on bumping this after she does.
__________________
translatingtbc.blogspot.com
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-12-2016, 01:32 PM
Cutter's Avatar
Cutter Cutter is offline
Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,503
Default

Anyway, the raider decision was clearly the right one.

I tried to update this thread last night after getting pulled over last night.
__________________
I don't always go online, but when I do i go to Roughingthepunter.com.

Keep in mind this place is full of nazi's, commies, atheists, ultra-liberal douchebags and generally folks whose self perceived level of enlightenment emits an odor so foul that you have to be thankful this is just the interwebs. Therefore, it is only natural that most folks here don't like me.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-12-2016, 03:15 PM
BennyProfane's Avatar
BennyProfane BennyProfane is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 860
Default

482 49ers +3 (-120)
__________________
translatingtbc.blogspot.com
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -8. The time now is 04:01 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.