Roughing the Punter

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Old 02-25-2013, 03:31 PM
The Chaperone's Avatar
The Chaperone The Chaperone is offline
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Default TBC Thread

Now that TBC has joined the forum, I figured it might be appropriate to start his own thread so the "Best Threads from Other Forums" thread doesn't get derailed.

Getting everyone back up to speed:

-sockroll (net worth) = $803
-Location: Gold Strike in Jean, NV
-Game: Dealer's Angel VBJ... 4 decks, visibly shuffled after 80 cards, S17, DAS, LS, NRS... off the top house edge = ~.40%
-Spread: $1-$8, sometimes multiple hands, sometimes martingaling, not very consistent
-Count system: formerly HiOptI with no ace side count and no true counting. Has just switched to HiLo (presumably also without true counting. Basically winging it on strategy variations.
-Comps: 1% of total action. Can be used toward hotel rooms at the rate of $12/night for Sunday-Thursday, $15 for Friday and $30 for Saturday. This is an average of $15/night or $105/week or approximately $450/month. Excess comps can be used for food or possibly sold for gas at the Shell stations though TBC has shown no inclination of doing so.

KimLee et al. can post thoughts, suggestions, and comments here.
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  #2  
Old 02-25-2013, 08:35 PM
lollerskates lollerskates is offline
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Basically what we have here is a retarded card counter who has
- No roll
- A poor grasp on how card counting works
- Not emotionally stable enough to handle 3 figure swings (hell, a 2 figure downswing has him panicing at this point.. pathetic)

http://www.opportunityvillage.org is this guy's only hope. He sure as hell isn't going to make it "counting" cards.
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  #3  
Old 02-26-2013, 02:39 AM
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Craps Master Craps Master is offline
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Yeah, but jobs fucking suck.
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  #4  
Old 02-26-2013, 05:46 AM
kimlee kimlee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
played one last short final session, winning $13, making the new roll $816
Personally I would unplug the machine on negative counts. :-)

My best parallel to TBC is Bob Fischer (and then maybe Clarke Cant or even Doug Grant). I don't understand how TBC can be obsessed by playing the machine, but not comparably obsessed by using the best system and spread.

TBC, how are you determining your running count indices for that game? What do you think your edge is?

There is a minimum spread to beat any game. When you double your bankroll, you can double your spread, and earn a higher rate of return. For example, here are some hypothetical scenarios.

[pre]

Spread Units/100 Earn/100
1-1 -.4 -$.40
1-4 0 $0
1-8 .4 $.40
1-16 .8 $0.80

[/pre]

You also get more comps at higher levels. If you go below the minimum profitable spread then you are just sucked into a slow spiral of death. I would prefer to go out with guns blazing. Then at least you have positive EV and a chance to get lucky and boost your bankroll. There is no point in cutting your bets after paying expenses when those expenses are anticipated.
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Old 02-26-2013, 06:24 AM
kimlee kimlee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
won $40, new roll $856, but fear my phone bill will be charged anyday now
Another thing. Many gamblers blame their spreads when they lose big bets. What really happens is they have conservative, losing spreads. They get slightly lucky at low counts for a while, grinding up from $600 to $700 to $800. So they think they have positive expectation. But they were really playing a losing spread. Finally they get unlucky on big bets and get quickly knocked down to $600. But since they were not playing a winning game, that is where they should be.

TBC does not have the guts to play an aggressive, winning spread. So he will tread water until his expenses kill him. The darned thing is he only needs to make $5 per hour, but is currently betting too conservatively to accomplish that. I give it less than one month.
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  #6  
Old 02-26-2013, 06:51 AM
sevencard2003 sevencard2003 is offline
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Kimlee really has no idea how i play, since hes not watched me play this machine, and all the info he is getting is from secondhand posters. I was using Cutters suggestions as to what to bet, but i fear what he is saying isnt correct. yes he is right about $1 one spot on negative counts, but im basically doing that anyway.

i fear Cutter was wrong about betting $5 off the top one spot, and then slowly going up to $10 with the count. he says this way im getting all the money in at even or plus counts, and never getting in more than the bare min with negative counts. this is good, but not nearly enough to win. going from $5 to $10 is, only spreading 2 units, not a wide enough spread.

i think much better is 3 spots of $1 or $2 off new shoes. this reduces variance, and yet still allows me to drop to 1 spot of $1 if it goes negative and switch to say one hand of $3-4 if the hands end with a count of say +2 or +3. it would be far better if i had a roll of like $1500, (about the min roll u can get by on) and then spreading to $15 on a spot.

Cutter also said when i grow the roll to $2000 to be a little more conservative and not keep betting 1%, but to limit it to $15 on a spot. not sure if this is correct advice either.

$5 per hour? i dont need $5 per hour, id be happy growing the roll $20 a day long term. but can u mathametically explain how its possible to clear $5 an hour with only $856 to work with? or even to clear $20 a day? How did u come up with i need to earn $5 per hour? dont forget to take into acct the machine cant possibly be dealing more than 60 hands an hour.

when trying to design such a scenario as to what u think i should bet, please keep the risk of ruin below 25%, preferably about 10% or so. remember also if i dropped to say below $300 id have to give it up entirely, since i couldnt ever bet over $4 and just wouldnt have a wide enough spread anymore. dont know what id do, but i would be XXXXed.

in dec, (when i thought i had enough to leave Jean for good) i did sell about $50 worth of comps for gas, but almost no one would buy them because they didnt want to travel to Jean to get 40c a gallon overpriced gas so i didnt get a good price, more like $30 for $60. wishing id have held onto those comps, id feel a lot more comfortable if my room was prepaid ahead a week or two, ive still not earned the comps for this saturday yet, am only prepaid up thru friday
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Old 02-26-2013, 07:53 AM
lollerskates lollerskates is offline
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tony, tell us the story about you having sex with men 20 years ago.

Why did you start repressing your homosexuality? You'd probably be less nuts if you didn't do that.

Maybe someone would be more interested in buying your blog if you posted juicy details about your past like this, instead of just your typical "won $10, lost $10" crap. We all know you're a self hating gay already, the cat's out of the bag. Might as well go on with the story.

Last edited by lollerskates; 02-26-2013 at 08:21 AM.
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Old 02-26-2013, 08:22 AM
sevencard2003 sevencard2003 is offline
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nothing to talk about, was afraid for my safety if i didnt go along. was hitchhiking on a dark road at night in a small town in georgia, running away from home. and the other time i was in a juvenile detention facility and just as afraid. both times was under age 19
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Old 02-26-2013, 08:47 AM
lollerskates lollerskates is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
nothing to talk about, was afraid for my safety if i didnt go along. was hitchhiking on a dark road at night in a small town in georgia, running away from home. and the other time i was in a juvenile detention facility and just as afraid. both times was under age 19
So basically you got raped.. twice..

Well, that explains the constant hating on gays..
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Old 02-26-2013, 09:57 AM
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2w2p2s 2w2p2s is offline
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A fine comparison on the morality of skipping out on a contract and daughter for hire:

Quote:
lets say a woman had agreed to let her teenage daughter be used sexually by an older man in exchange for money. then later thought better of it and went back on her agreement. who are u to say that woman is wrong to go back on her word, and she should stick to the agreement over the money? no moral difference is there?
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"people can be replaced u see. money cannot, once its gone, its gone forever"- TBC
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