Roughing the Punter

Go Back   Roughing the Punter > Main Forums > The Chip Count

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 08-22-2013, 03:48 PM
Craps Master's Avatar
Craps Master Craps Master is offline
Moderator-The Chip Count
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 809
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hecky View Post
There are lots of them. I suspect KK is probably pretty strong in multiway pots.
Alright, I just want you to know it's not. The reason I said KK is irrelevant in the context of an AA hand is that the value of AA is the potential to scoop or quarter someone when the AA holds for the high or, to a lesser extent, the ability to hit a nut flush. Having KK is redundant if you already have AA when it comes to having an overpair that holds, and loses all of its value when an A hits the board. K-high flushes are also significantly worse than A-high flushes.

Consider the following two facts. First, a random AA*** is better than a random AAKK* hand. What's more, a random AAK2* hand is better than AAKK2 hand. This is just looking at the raw sim data, which is only part of the equation. This shows that much of the value of KK is the broadway potential, not the ability to flop top set. That happens infrequently, and sets aren't so fantastic in 5-card O8. It should make it pretty clear that the pair of kings is not worth much in these hands when dropping one K and taking a random fifth card improves its equity.

You have to ask yourself, what sorts of flops does AAKK2 hit that it's loving more than AAK23 or something like that. The answer is flops with a K and that's about it. It is hating flops with a 2, whereas AAK23 is still often loving them. On a flop such as T 8 5 or J T 3 or anything with two medium or two low cards, AA2** is laughing all the way to the bank against AAK2, especially when the two other cards are low or otherwise relevant.

The reason has nothing to do with flop equities but with the options available to the players on each street. Unless AAKK2 gets a good runout it is going to have to be conservative, whereas AA2** will have many opportunities to put pressure on opponents. In limit O8 this will translate to extra bets here and there over the long run when AA2** can raise where AAKK2 can only call, or where AA2** can bet but AAKK2 has to check. In PLO8 this is going to translate to massive gains from betting people out of the pot or quartering them in spots where AAKK2 just chops or cannot bet aggressively to win a pot uncontested.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 08-22-2013, 04:11 PM
GroovinMahoovinPartDeux's Avatar
GroovinMahoovinPartDeux GroovinMahoovinPartDeux is offline
Bet Like a Real Fucking Pro
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 7,011
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hecky View Post
Now if you ignore this and just talk about 'multiway pots in 5 card omaha8' you are talking so many different scenarios. Not just the # of players, but whether big bet or limit, preflop action, etc, that will effect the distributions. Another scenario is multiway after everyone has pretty much called off with their 100-300 bigblind stacks preflop. That is a totally different situation.
That's fantastic. I never discussed big bet scenarios.

Quote:
Groovin likes to nit it up and try to out literalize everyone to prove something.
No, Groovin likes to discuss the topic at hand. If you wish to discuss other topics, fantastic, but don't tell someone else they're wrong for discussing the initial topic.

Quote:
Does that mean I necessarily know it is better in a hand where 3 people get it all-in preflop? No, I am not sure. The distributions are quite different. Groovin though glosses over this sort of thing when it is not to the benefit of his argument.
Groovin glosses over all-in preflop scenarios when the topic was limit. How often do I have to repeat myself?

Quote:
The other thing is, Groovin will never say "I was wrong about that".
I am wrong all the time. I am not wrong on this topic.

You now have an excellent poker player in CrapsMaster explaining some of this stuff more clearly than I can, but note that some of what he says is the same stuff I already said, i.e:

"the value of AA is the potential to scoop or quarter someone when the AA holds for the high or, to a lesser extent, the ability to hit a nut flush. Having KK is redundant if you already have AA when it comes to having an overpair that holds"
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 08-22-2013, 06:28 PM
hecky's Avatar
hecky hecky is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craps Master View Post

Consider the following two facts. First, a random AA*** is better than a random AAKK* hand. What's more, a random AAK2* hand is better than AAKK2 hand. This is just looking at the raw sim data, which is only part of the equation. This shows that much of the value of KK is the broadway potential, not the ability to flop top set. That happens infrequently, and sets aren't so fantastic in 5-card O8. It should make it pretty clear that the pair of kings is not worth much in these hands when dropping one K and taking a random fifth card improves its equity.
edit - Don't read this as I answer my own questions unless you are REALLY interested in this stuff.

I am not trying to argue for the sake of arguing. This is a bit bizarre to me.

AAKK2 28.56% 67,848 93,772 10,914 0 108,389
AA234 22.40% 20,575 29,534 13,811 68,226 108,389
34567 12.77% 21,642 76,355 2,897 3,456 0
789TJ 36.26% 104,881 181,790 0 0 0

So why is AAKK2 so much of a better hand than AA234 here ?

Here I change KK to K9 (no broadway/no backup low) and K9 sucks.

Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AAK92 23.07% 51,602 76,260 15,092 0 120,078
AA234 23.59% 26,083 36,331 19,075 75,410 120,078
34567 15.31% 31,596 98,590 3,983 3,779 0
789TJ 38.04% 125,530 207,502 0 0 0


Here I change KK to KQ for biggest broadway draw and KK still wins !

Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AAKQ2 25.78% 73,621 103,536 503 0 128,620
AA234 21.42% 25,172 35,981 4,049 80,724 128,620
34567 14.64% 32,331 101,237 3,546 4,051 0
789TJ 38.17% 133,779 224,315 0 0 0

One thing is that when KK does hit top set, the odds of a low are dramatically lower, but that also means lower implied odds. I tend to agree that it is harder to squeeze out bets etc with AAKK2, but I am just not seeing why KK should be so discounted.

In all 3 of these scenarios, even giving AAKQ2 (best broadway + 1 nut low draw) we see that the AAK2* does not improve over AAKK2 vs AA234.

Actually on further simming it appears that AAKK2 beats AA234 when they're both in the pot, but AAKK2 for some reason takes a lot more from AA234 than vice versa. Anyway, it still isn't clear to me. I didn't cherrypick any of the above, just 2 other different and strong quasi-random hands.

Thinking about it some more, I suppose that the 5 cards will make any straight on board be a lot more common, so sets are weaker. There aren't many boards with no possible straight.

I guess part of the problem is that when simming the 2 AA's in the same hand, they're splitting a lot of pots ? No.. that isn't it. Meh. I have a headache.

edit -
Actually those sims suck because there is never a dead King. So the KK is fully live in all those scenarios where the AA is set dead. AA can't even win with 2 pair given the way I chose the other 2 opponents hands since they'll always be up against trips.

I'll have to play around with propokertools some more, as I don't understand the capabilities. I left my post here, but it is mainly me thinking outloud. They actually spread this game pl style a lot at the one place I still play at so I am pretty interested in this. I'm one of the few people in the game who will get it allin when I think I have an equity edge. This is why I don't mind hotncold sims. If I am repeating something groovin said, my apologies.

Last edited by hecky; 08-22-2013 at 06:44 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 08-22-2013, 06:43 PM
Craps Master's Avatar
Craps Master Craps Master is offline
Moderator-The Chip Count
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 809
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hecky View Post
I am not trying to argue for the sake of arguing. This is a bit bizarre to me.

AAKK2 28.56% 67,848 93,772 10,914 0 108,389
AA234 22.40% 20,575 29,534 13,811 68,226 108,389
34567 12.77% 21,642 76,355 2,897 3,456 0
789TJ 36.26% 104,881 181,790 0 0 0

So why is AAKK2 so much of a better hand than AA234 here ?
Because you have removed 15 low cards from the deck in this simulation but only 4 high cards. Throw in a fifth hand, KQJT9, and watch how the equities change. None of this is really relevant to what I said before, though, because these five hands would not be getting it in in any actual game.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 08-22-2013, 07:00 PM
hecky's Avatar
hecky hecky is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craps Master View Post
Because you have removed 15 low cards from the deck in this simulation but only 4 high cards. Throw in a fifth hand, KQJT9, and watch how the equities change. None of this is really relevant to what I said before, though, because these five hands would not be getting it in in any actual game.
AAKQ2 46.09% 159,615 247,795 9,794 164,343 27,951
* 26.94% 80,253 166,565 13,806 75,591 20,792
* 26.97% 80,176 167,079 13,733 75,771 20,868

Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AAKK2 47.61% 174,858 262,968 4,221 164,492 28,273
* 26.23% 78,622 161,887 11,454 76,161 20,895
* 26.17% 78,546 161,567 11,561 75,500 20,789


Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AAKT2 45.75% 158,182 245,664 9,448 164,025 28,204
* 27.13% 81,072 168,000 13,331 76,049 20,922
* 27.12% 81,365 168,436 13,237 75,595 20,753

KK still has highest equity of any AAK2* hand. ? (I am NOT saying you are wrong. I just don't accept things because people tell me. I'm sure you understand if you beat nosebleed.)

If broadway component is stronger, then AAKQ2 should definitely beat AAKK2 but we see it doesn't. Isn't this counter to your claim, CM ?

edit - and obviously there are other factors. Those factors could easily outweigh the couple of percentage points.....
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 08-22-2013, 07:17 PM
Craps Master's Avatar
Craps Master Craps Master is offline
Moderator-The Chip Count
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 809
Default

Not sure what you're doing over there, but...

Quote:
Originally Posted by PPT
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AAKK2 21.54% 16,660 32,500 742 0 77,081
AA234 26.68% 9,526 15,454 2,726 49,462 77,081
34567 16.37% 11,353 53,422 1,984 2,655 0
789TJ 15.70% 8,404 39,419 23,043 0 0
KQJT9 19.71% 26,049 38,234 23,043 0 0
That's with 15 high cards and 10 low cards in the hands, a more reasonable distribution than the four hands you had posted before. In this instance, AA234 is beating AAKK2. AA2** and AAKK2 are almost even in this setup, and AAK2* is ahead of AAKK2. In all cases, it's the AA2 doing all the heavy lifting for AAKK2.

But, really, this stuff does not matter in most games, unless you're playing really short. If you're playing in a reasonably deep game, you won't be getting it in preflop and hands like JT987 are not going to be showing up to the party very often except in very low-stakes limit donkfests. In those types of games, of course AAKK2 is a monster. It just isn't as good as many other AA2 hands. In those games, though, people take their A3 to the bitter end thinking they're going to have a shot at the low, so almost any AA2 is just going to devastate them.

In real play, you are going to win money with AAKK2. You are going to win money with nearly any AA2 hand. You are going to win more money with other hands, though. Hands like AA234 or AA236, or even AK234 or AK236 with flush possibilities. The reasons are as I described above.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 08-22-2013, 08:24 PM
hecky's Avatar
hecky hecky is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,006
Default

Well I never really tried to argue that AAKK2 was better in multiway pots, I just suspected there might be a distribution where AAKK2 might actually be better.

So you were saying KK is not good at all. (correct?) So this time I put wildcards for the other's hands to not introduce unintended biases.

I tried to demonstrate to myself that KK is as weak as you said. When I put AAKK2, AAKQ2 and AAKT2 against 2 other random hands the KK was the strongest. You seemingly had a different conclusion earlier.


You were saying the broadway aspect is stronger than the KK. By the last sim I posted, I am not convinced but do not see what I am doing wrong except not considering implied odds etc.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 09-28-2013, 09:58 AM
Toledo Tom Toledo Tom is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 406
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craps Master View Post
Alright, I just want you to know it's not. The reason I said KK is irrelevant in the context of an AA hand is that the value of AA is the potential to scoop or quarter someone when the AA holds for the high or, to a lesser extent, the ability to hit a nut flush. Having KK is redundant if you already have AA when it comes to having an overpair that holds, and loses all of its value when an A hits the board. K-high flushes are also significantly worse than A-high flushes.

Consider the following two facts. First, a random AA*** is better than a random AAKK* hand. What's more, a random AAK2* hand is better than AAKK2 hand. This is just looking at the raw sim data, which is only part of the equation. This shows that much of the value of KK is the broadway potential, not the ability to flop top set. That happens infrequently, and sets aren't so fantastic in 5-card O8. It should make it pretty clear that the pair of kings is not worth much in these hands when dropping one K and taking a random fifth card improves its equity.

You have to ask yourself, what sorts of flops does AAKK2 hit that it's loving more than AAK23 or something like that. The answer is flops with a K and that's about it. It is hating flops with a 2, whereas AAK23 is still often loving them. On a flop such as T 8 5 or J T 3 or anything with two medium or two low cards, AA2** is laughing all the way to the bank against AAK2, especially when the two other cards are low or otherwise relevant.

The reason has nothing to do with flop equities but with the options available to the players on each street. Unless AAKK2 gets a good runout it is going to have to be conservative, whereas AA2** will have many opportunities to put pressure on opponents. In limit O8 this will translate to extra bets here and there over the long run when AA2** can raise where AAKK2 can only call, or where AA2** can bet but AAKK2 has to check. In PLO8 this is going to translate to massive gains from betting people out of the pot or quartering them in spots where AAKK2 just chops or cannot bet aggressively to win a pot uncontested.
This is what I was trying to say but You did a much better job
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -8. The time now is 10:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.