Roughing the Punter

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  #11  
Old 04-25-2012, 09:22 AM
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I forgot this forum existed. I haven't played PLO any higher than $1/$2 online and am almost certainly too tight/nitty, as I tend to learn games by playing a bit overly tightly. UTG and UTG+1 could probably have a wide variety of hands here as described, but as played I would be pretty concerned MP has a flush draw and outs duplicating part of my wrap. I would have thought it was a clear fold if posted by a random poster, but obviously not since CM thought it was close, so interesting discussion.
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  #12  
Old 05-28-2012, 07:26 PM
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I'm way closer to folding than repotting. Also seems like a super tough lineup for a PLO game, I would probably take off and wait for a better lineup on a different day or something.
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  #13  
Old 01-16-2013, 08:19 PM
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I have an opinion here.

You have a 13 card nut straight wrap. Ignoring flushes and full houses, thats not that massive a wrap for Omaha (for example, 78JQ on that same board would make a 20 card straight wrap) but the good news is all of your straight outs are to the nut straight.

However, 4 of your outs put a flush on the board. That gives you on 9 outs which isn't that much. And even if you hit those outs, there are redraws to flushes and full houses. And even if you survive the redraws, you still have a possibility of getting chopped two ways or three ways. (Your straight might survive if the board pairs, but it would take a miracle to survive if the flush makes.)

I looked at some odds on an Omaha calculator. If you are up against a pair and a flush draw you are 32%. If you are up against two pair and a flush draw you are 26%. If you are up against a set and flush draw you are 21%. To break even you would need odds of 2 to 1, 3 to 1, or 4 to 1 in each case assuming you do not split the pot with another player. If 5 other players go all in, you will get 5 to 1, but your chances are splitting are very high giving you a bad deal. If just the 3 players go all in, you are getting OK odds against two pair and flush, you are getting bad odds against a set and a flush, and because of the possibility of a split (even smaller) you are getting a bad deal both ways.

All that said, lets look at calling versus raising. If you call, you are hoping no one raises behind you, so you have an opportunity to fold on the turn if the flush hits or the board pairs. And the board pairing may not beat your straight but it will still make you fold which is bad. And if a blank hits, I can't imagine you are getting a free card against these players in the action you describe. You are pot committed, and it is very unlikely this group will all call and check to the river. You also increase your chance of splitting if you make your straight.

If you raise, you don't have enough money to pot it. If you did have enough to pot it all in, you might be able to get everyone fold. But with what you have (5000 behind you, and I count It would take about 9000 to pot it) I don't think you can get everyone else to fold, and I don't think you can get any combination to fold that will give you an overlay. (You might get a couple to fold who you might have chopped with you if you drew out.)

So I say you have an easy fold here. You still have most of your stack behind you.

Are there any open seats in this game?
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  #14  
Old 02-26-2013, 03:12 PM
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I like folding unless there are metagame considerations
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  #15  
Old 02-27-2013, 04:28 PM
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The main reason I lean towards folding is the prospect of chopping a winning hand. Seems about EV neutral otherwise but that scenario hurts a lot I think. Also, it could go J, Q and lose to a higher straight, although that's a minor consideration.
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